The shift in fixed income: why short-duration bonds in a changing landscape | Amundi HK Retail

The shift in fixed income: why short-duration bonds in a changing landscape

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Key takeaways

  • The normalisation of the yield curve will make cash-like instruments less appealing

  • Short-duration bonds could be considered a suitable alternative, providing attractive yields with reduced sensitivity to rate changes

  • Current market conditions could allow active managers to showcase their ability to generate alpha in fixed income

Recent years have been characterised by an extensive set of inflationary events, leading to policy shifts by central banks around the world. 

With increasing visibility on the horizon, we believe this could represent an ideal moment to review current portfolio allocations and consider the risk/return benefits of short-term fixed income instruments. 

Appealing yields for short duration bonds

The volatility and uncertainty of the past few years have led many investors to opt for cash-like investments, which have been rewarded by attractive yields due to an inverted yield curve - a circumstance where yields on short-term maturities are higher than those on longer-term ones. 

US rate expectations rise again

Source: Amundi Institute, Janauary 2025

 

The rate cuts are in the play

Nevertheless, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue its easing cycle in 2025, albeit at a more gradual pace than anticipated, and the progressive normalisation of the yield curve, this favourable condition for money market and cash deposits is set to change

Why Short Duration now?

income Short duration bonds are offering attractive entry points, allowing investors to temporarily lock in yields, while also providing a cushion for any potential market sell-off. 
risk icon Short duration bonds are less volatile and sensitive to rate changes then their longer-term counterparts, a feature that investors might find particularly appealing given the market uncertainties still present.

Navigate uncertainties

Indeed, current uncertainties include not only geopolitical risks, but also the potential impacts of incoming fiscal and foreign trade policies in the US on inflation, Federal Reserve’s decisions, and yield volatility, especially on the long end of the curve. 

While the current environment might be challenging, it also provides an opportunity for skilled managers to demonstrate their ability to generate alpha

In our view, fixed income should once more be considered a core part of investors’ portfolios, as its ability to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns could improve portfolio stability, particularly with a decrease in stock/bond correlation in sight.

Capture income with short-duration bond

Why Amundi for fixed income

Amundi is one of the industry leaders in fixed income, with an AuM of over €1 trillion (as at 30 September 2024). Over the past 20 years, we have developed a comprehensive range of fixed income investment products, from fundamental, rule-based or active approaches to buy and maintain strategies. The team’s strong skill-set and broad expertise aims to continually seek out the best opportunities, while also evolving to identify new ways to source potential returns.

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