Navigating the US dollar's Trajectory: Trade Policies, Inflation, and Economic Dynamics

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Amundi Funds

Amundi Funds is an umbrella structure that contains different sub-funds including equity sub-funds, bond sub-funds, and multi-asset sub-funds, each with different risk profile
Some sub-funds may invest in a single country or specific industry sector. The investment focus of the sub-funds may give rise to higher concentration risk. These sub-funds are likely to be more volatile than sub-funds with a broader range of investment.   
Although some sub-funds will not make extensive use of derivatives for investment purposes or use complex derivatives or strategies, the use of derivatives and/or mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS) may lead to exposure to credit risk of the issuer, liquidity risk, counterparty risk, valuation risk and over-the-counter transaction risk. Exposure to financial derivative instruments (FDI) and its leverage element may lead to higher risk of significant loss by the sub-fund. For some sub-funds may make extensive use of derivatives for investment purposes or use complex derivatives or strategies, which may additionally subject to higher leverage and volatility risks.                                                 
Some sub-funds may expose to a higher degree of risk due to the investment in small and medium companies.
Some sub-funds may focus in investing in emerging markets which may experience political, economic and regulatory changes which pose additional risk to the funds. These sub-funds are likely to be more volatile and less liquid than sub-funds which invest in developed countries.
Some sub-funds may invest in bonds and/or emerging markets green bond which may expose investors to interest rate, credit and prepayment risk. It may also associate economic risks of high inflation and interest rates, large external debt, political and social uncertainties as well as risk associated with emerging markets green bonds. 
Some sub-funds may invest in convertible bonds, high yield, non-investment grade and unrated securities which are subject to higher risks including but not limited to default, downgrading, interest rate, credit and liquidity risks.
For RMB class, as RMB is not freely convertible, the investment in RMB classes may be adversely affected by the fluctuation in the exchange rate between RMB and other foreign currencies and the liquidity of RMB at the relevant time. In case of sizable redemption requests for the RMB classes, the Manager has the absolute discretion to delay any payment of redemption requests from the RMB classes.
For distribution class, the Manager may at its discretion determine to pay dividends out of income or capital or effectively out of capital of the fund. Payment of dividends out of capital and/or effectively out of capital amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment. Any distributions involving payment of dividends out of the fund’s capital or payment of dividends effectively out of the fund’s capital (as the case may be) may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the fund.
The value of the fund can be extremely volatile and could go down substantially within a short period of time. It is possible that your investment value could suffer substantial loss.
The investment decision is yours, but you should not invest in the product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has advised you that the product is suitable for you and explained why including how buying it would be consistent with your investment objective.

Amundi Asia Funds

Amundi Asia Funds is an umbrella structure that contains different sub-funds. The sub-funds are funds of funds that will invest at least 80% of their net assets in UCITS (undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities) / UCIs (undertaking for collective investment).
Investing in this fund may expose investors to exchange/currency risk, concentration risk, emerging markets risk, Eurozone risk.
Some sub-fund(s) may involve risks relating to Standard Chartered’s CIO selection strategy, termination of the right to use Standard Chartered’s CIO selection strategy, risks associated with debt securities (including credit/counterparty risk, interest rate risk, below-investment-grade/unrated bonds risk, sovereign debt risk, volatility and liquidity risk, downgrading risk, valuation risk and credit rating risk), as well as risk of investment in collateralised and/or securitised products.
Some sub-fund(s) may involve risks of investing in other schemes, risk relating to the investment strategy of the fund, risk of termination of the investment advisory agreement with DBS, as well as risks associated with debt securities (including credit/counterparty risk, interest rate risk, sovereign debt risk, below-investment-grade bonds risk, volatility and liquidity risk, downgrading risk, valuation risk and credit rating risk).
The fund may invest in underlying schemes which may use FDI extensively for investment purposes, or of which the net derivative exposure is more than 50% of the underlying schemes’ net asset value. Investment in FDI is subject to additional risks, including counterparty and credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk. The leverage element/component of an FDI may result in significant losses.
For distribution class, the fund may at its discretion determine to pay dividends out of income or capital or effectively out of capital of the fund. Payment of dividends out of capital and/or effectively out of capital amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment. Any distributions involving payment of dividends out of the fund’s capital or payment of dividends effectively out of the fund’s capital (as the case may be) may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the fund.
The value of the fund can be volatile and could go down substantially. Investors may suffer substantial loss.
Investors should not make investment decisions solely based on this marketing material.

Amundi HK - Green Planet Fund

The sub-fund invests primarily in companies according to (1) their environmental ratings and (2) ﬁnancial performance expectations, with a view to outperforming the MSCI World Index over the medium to long term.
Investing in this sub-fund may involve exposure to ESG investment policy risk, concentration risk as well as risk associated with small and medium companies-related investments. The use of financial derivative instruments for hedging purpose may subject to additional risks, including credit risk of the issuer, liquidity risk, counterparty risk and valuation risk.
As RMB is not freely convertible, the investment in RMB classes may be adversely affected by the fluctuation in the exchange rate between RMB and other foreign currencies and the liquidity of RMB at the relevant time. In case of sizable redemption requests for the RMB classes, the Manager has the absolute discretion to delay any payment of redemption requests from the RMB classes.
For Distribution classes, the Manager may at its discretion determine to pay dividends out of income or capital of the fund. In addition, the Manager may at its discretion pay dividends out of gross income while charging / paying all or part of the fund’s fees and expenses to/out the capital of the fund, resulting in an increase in distributable income for the payment of dividends by the fund, in which case, the fund is effectively paying dividends out of capital. Payment of dividends out of capital amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment. Such distributions may result in an immediate reduction in the net asset value per unit of the fund.
The value of the fund can be volatile and the fund may suffer substantial loss.
Investors should not make investment decisions solely based on this marketing material.

Amundi HK Portfolios

Amundi HK Portfolios is an umbrella unit trust consisting of different Sub-Funds investing in equities, bonds, money market instruments and other investment fund(s), each with different risk profiles.
Some Sub-Funds may invest directly or indirectly through an underlying fund in global equity and fixed-interest instruments and will be mainly exposed to market risks, including (but not limited to) risks related to (1) the volatility of equity prices, (2) changes in interest rates, as well as (3) changes in prevailing foreign-exchange rates, as well as to liquidity risk, credit risk and counterparty risk. It may also associate with downgrading risk and sovereign-debt crisis risk . Investment in small and medium sized companies as well as emerging markets may involve a higher degree of risk.
Some sub-funds may use Financial Derivative Instruments (FDI) for hedging, efficient portfolio management and/or investment purposes which may lead to exposure to credit risk of the issuer, liquidity risk, counterparty risk and valuation risk.
Sub-funds which invest in underlying investment fund(s) may be exposed to risks affecting the underlying investment fund(s).
For hedged classes, each of the hedged classes of units will hedge the Sub-Fund’s base currency back to its currency of denomination, on a best effort basis, with an objective to align the performance of the hedged classes to that of the equivalent class denominated in the fund’s base currency. However, there is no guarantee that the hedging techniques employed by the manager will fully and effectively achieve the desired result and effect. Furthermore the volatility of the hedged classes may be higher than that of the equivalent class denominated in the fund’s base currency. If the counterparties of the instruments used for hedging purpose default, investors of the hedged classes may be exposed to currency exchange risk of the currency of denomination of the relevant class on an unhedged basis and may therefore suffer further losses. Investors have to bear the associated hedging costs which may be significant depending on prevailing market conditions
For distribution classes, the Manager may at its discretion determine to pay dividends out of income or capital of the fund. In addition, the Manager may at its discretion pay dividends out of gross income while charging / paying all or part of the fund’s fees and expenses to the capital of the fund, resulting in an increase in distributable income for the payment of dividends by the fund, in which case, the fund is effectively paying dividends out of capital. Payment of dividends out of capital amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment. Such distributions may result in an immediate reduction in the net asset value per unit of the fund. For Distribution II class, the quarterly distribution is not guaranteed, and the fund’s asset for this share class available for investment will be further decreased after each quarterly dividend payment
Amundi Hong Kong Balanced Fund, Defensive Balanced Fund, Growth Fund, New Generation Asia Pacific Equity Dividend Fund and Disruptive Opportunities Equity Fund, these sub-funds will have limited RMB-denominated underlying investment.
As RMB is not freely convertible, the investment in RMB classes may be adversely affected by the fluctuation in the exchange rate between RMB and other foreign currencies and the liquidity of RMB at the relevant time. In case of sizable redemption requests for the RMB classes, the Manager has the absolute discretion to delay any payment of redemption requests from the RMB classes.
Amundi HK Money Market USD is a feeder fund of Amundi Funds Cash USD (“Underlying Fund”), which is not a money market fund in Hong Kong. The Underlying Fund is not guaranteed. The purchase of shares in the Underlying Fund is not the same as placing funds on deposit with a bank or deposit taking company.
Amundi HK Disruptive Opportunities Equity Fund which mainly invests in disruptive innovative companies may be exposed to higher market volatility and higher turnover ratios, and may suffer significant loss.
The value of the fund can be extremely volatile and could go down substantially within a short period of time. It is possible that your investment value could suffer substantial loss.
The investment decision is yours. You should not invest in any of the sub-funds of this Fund unless the intermediary who recommends it to you has advised you that the sub-fund is suitable for you and has explained to you why, including how investment in the sub-fund will be consistent with your investment objectives.

Amundi Vietnam Opportunities Fund

The sub-fund is an equity fund.
The sub-fund invests in a single market and is subject to greater concentration and liquidity risks than a more diversified investment.
The sub-fund invests in emerging market and is exposed to higher risks, including currency risk.
The value of the fund can be extremely volatile and could go down substantially within a short period of time. It is possible that your investment value could suffer substantial loss.
The investment decision is yours, but you should not invest in the product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has advised you that the product is suitable for you and explained why including how buying it would be consistent with your investment objective.

Amundi Hang Seng HK 35 Index ETF

Amundi Hang Seng HK 35 Index ETF (the “HSHK 35 ETF”) is a physical exchange traded fund seeking to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the Hang Seng HK 35 index (the “Index”).

Investment involves risks and investors may lose substantial part of their investment in the HSHK 35 ETF. In particular, the HSHK 35 ETF’s investment in equity securities is subject to general market risks.
The HSHK 35 ETF is different from a typical unit trust as it is listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and like other listed stocks, carries similar risks such as liquidity risk and risk of trading suspension. The market price per Unit could be significantly higher or lower than its Net Asset Value per Unit due to market demand and supply, liquidity and scale of trading spread in the secondary market and will fluctuate during the trading day.
The HSHK 35 ETF is subject to tracking error risks, risks associated with passive investments and risks of concentration of investments in a single market/several constituent stocks of the Index.
The HSHK 35 ETF is also subject to dual counter risks, RMB trading and settlement risks, RMB currency and foreign exchange risks and reliance on market maker risks.
The Manager intends to pay distributions to shareholders at least semi-annually. Distributions may be made out of capital or effectively out of capital as well as income at the Manager’s discretion. Where distributions are made out of capital or effectively out of capital, this may result in an immediate reduction in the Net Asset Value per Unit.

Amundi FTSE China A50 Index ETF

Amundi FTSE China A50 Index ETF (the “A50 ETF”) is a physical exchange traded fund seeking to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the FTSE China A50 index (the “Index”).

Investment involves risks and investors may lose substantial part of their investment in the A50 ETF.  Investors should not only base on this material alone to make investment decisions, but should read the A50 ETF’s offering documents, including the full text of the risk factors.
The A50 ETF is traded on the exchange at market price, which may be different from its net asset value. The A50 ETF carries risks such as liquidity risk and risk of trading suspension.
The A50 ETF is subject to tracking error risks and risks associated with passive investments.
Investing solely in A-share market, which is inherently a market with restricted access (such as RQFII and Stock Connect constraints), may subject the ETF to emerging market risk (such as economic, political, tax, foreign exchange, regulatory, volatility and liquidity risks) and concentration risk.
RMB is currently not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. Non-RMB based investors are exposed to foreign exchange risk.
The Manager may, at its discretion, pay dividends out of capital or effectively out of capital. Payment of dividends out of capital or effectively out of the capital amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment. Any such distributions may result in an immediate reduction of the NAV per Unit.

General 

The contents of this website are for information purposes only, and do not constitute a distribution, an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any investment product in any jurisdiction in which the distribution or offer is not authorized. Not all products or services described in this website may be registered or licensed in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors. Nothing contained in this website constitutes a solicitation or offer by any member of Amundi Hong Kong Limited or its affiliates to provide any investment advice or service or to buy or sell any investment product. In any case persons who are subject to such restrictions, such as US persons, are not permitted to access the information contained in this website and are requested to leave this website.

Amundi Hong Kong Limited reserves the right to grant or revoke the authority to use this website at its absolute discretion. Investors should not only base on this document alone to make investment decisions.

This website has not been reviewed by the Securities & Futures Commission in Hong Kong (the “SFC”).

Under no circumstances may the information contained herein, or any part thereof, be copied, reproduced or redistributed without the express permission of Amundi Hong Kong Limited. To the extent permitted by applicable law, rules, codes and guidelines, Amundi Hong Kong Limited or its affiliates, any directors or employees of Amundi Hong Kong Limited or its affiliates shall not be liable for any damage arising from any person's reliance on such information and shall not be liable for any errors or omissions (including but not limited to errors or omissions made by third parties) in such information. The information provided herein is subject to change without further notice.

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Investment Guidance 

Investment involves risk. The past performance of the market, manager and investments and any forecasts on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets which are targeted by the investments are not necessarily a guide to future returns. Investment returns not denominated in HKD or USD is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. The value of an investment may go down or up. The offering document(s) should be read for further details. This website is prepared for information only and does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may read it. Neither Amundi Hong Kong Limited, its affiliates nor the authors of this website accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of the information on this website. Any person considering the investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of the particular investment.

Some of the funds in this website may use financial derivatives instruments as part of the investment strategy and invest in securities of emerging markets or smaller companies, or fixed-income securities. This involves significant risks and is usually more sensitive to price movements. The volatility of fund prices may be relatively increased. Issuers of fixed-income securities may default on its obligation and the fund(s) will not recover its investment. Additional risk factors are described in the offering document(s). Investors are advised to be aware of any new risks that may have emerged in the prevailing market circumstances before subscribing the fund(s).

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Data and information on this website may be provided by data providers of CREDIT AGRICOLE group in accordance with the authorisation granted to CREDIT AGRICOLE group.

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Amundi Hong Kong Limited will hold any personal information provided through this website in confidence and in compliance with all relevant and applicable laws and regulations.

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Hang Seng Disclaimer: The Hang Seng HK 35 (the "Index") is published and compiled by Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited pursuant to a licence from Hang Seng Data Services Limited. The mark and name Hang Seng HK 35 are proprietary to Hang Seng Data Services Limited. Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited and Hang Seng Data Services Limited have agreed to the use of, and reference to, the Index by AMUNDI HONG KONG LIMITED in connection with AMUNDI Hang Seng HK 35 Index ETF (the "Product"), BUT NEITHER HANG SENG INDEXES COMPANY LIMITED NOR HANG SENG DATA SERVICES LIMITED WARRANTS OR REPRESENTS OR GUARANTEES TO ANY BROKER OR HOLDER OF THE PRODUCT OR ANY OTHER PERSON (i) THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDEX AND ITS COMPUTATION OR ANY INFORMATION RELATED THERETO; OR (ii) THE FITNESS OR SUITABILITY FOR ANY PURPOSE OF THE INDEX OR ANY COMPONENT OR DATA COMPRISED IN IT; OR (iii) THE RESULTS WHICH MAY BE OBTAINED BY ANY PERSON FROM THE USE OF THE INDEX OR ANY COMPONENT OR DATA COMPRISED IN IT FOR ANY PURPOSE, AND NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION OR GUARANTEE OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER RELATING TO THE INDEX IS GIVEN OR MAY BE IMPLIED. The process and basis of computation and compilation of the Index and any of the related formula or formulae, constituent stocks and factors may at any time be changed or altered by Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited without notice. TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, NO RESPONSIBILITY OR LIABILITY IS ACCEPTED BY HANG SENG INDEXES COMPANY LIMITED OR HANG SENG DATA SERVICES LIMITED (i) IN RESPECT OF THE USE OF AND/OR REFERENCE TO THE INDEX BY AMUNDI HONG KONG LIMITED IN CONNECTION WITH THE PRODUCT; OR (ii) FOR ANY INACCURACIES, OMISSIONS, MISTAKES OR ERRORS OF HANG SENG INDEXES COMPANY LIMITED IN THE COMPUTATION OF THE INDEX; OR (iii) FOR ANY INACCURACIES, OMISSIONS, MISTAKES, ERRORS OR INCOMPLETENESS OF ANY INFORMATION USED IN CONNECTION WITH THE COMPUTATION OF THE INDEX WHICH IS SUPPLIED BY ANY OTHER PERSON; OR (iv) FOR ANY ECONOMIC OR OTHER LOSS WHICH MAY BE DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY SUSTAINED BY ANY BROKER OR HOLDER OF THE PRODUCT OR ANY OTHER PERSON DEALING WITH THE PRODUCT AS A RESULT OF ANY OF THE AFORESAID, AND NO CLAIMS, ACTIONS OR LEGAL PROCEEDINGS MAY BE BROUGHT AGAINST HANG SENG INDEXES COMPANY LIMITED AND/OR HANG SENG DATA SERVICES LIMITED in connection with the Product in any manner whatsoever by any broker, holder or other person dealing with the Product. Any broker, holder or other person dealing with the Product does so therefore in full knowledge of this disclaimer and can place no reliance whatsoever on Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited and Hang Seng Data Services Limited. For the avoidance of doubt, this disclaimer does not create any contractual or quasi-contractual relationship between any broker, holder or other person and Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited and/or Hang Seng Data Services Limited and must not be construed to have created such relationship.

Key takeaways

Trump's trade policies, including tariffs, could lead to a contraction in global trade, negatively affecting export-driven economies while benefiting the more domestically oriented US economy.
China's surplus capacity may induce further disinflation in Europe, exacerbating tensions with major trading partners and potentially supporting the USD as concerns about policy divergences with the Federal Reserve arise.
The new US administration's policies may increase inflation, creating greater uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and its impact on the USD.
While short-term factors may provide support for the USD, the long-term outlook suggests a possible weakening due to potential adverse growth shocks from higher tariffs and their effects on the US economy.
Economic pressures from higher tariffs could necessitate interest rate cuts, which may further contribute to a decline in the USD over time.

The victory of Donald Trump in the US elections had an immediate consequence: a significant appreciation of the US dollar (USD). However, what are the projections for the coming months?

Source: Amundi, February 2025

Three factors may contribute to a stronger USD and increased foreign exchange (FX) volatility in the near term:

Trump’s aggressive trade diplomacy, including the imposition of tariffs, may result in a contraction of global trade. This could cause export-driven economies to suffer more than the US, which is more domestically oriented. However, it remains uncertain to what extent Trump will effectively implement comprehensive tariffs on his trading partners.
China’s surplus capacity may induce further disinflation in Europe if the US opts for broadly applied tariffs on Chinese imports. The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries has already exacerbated tensions between the world’s largest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the European Union. Having dominated the production of clothing and consumer electronics in the past, China now leads in industries deemed strategically important for the energy transition. Disinflation patterns in Europe could heighten concerns about policy divergences with the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting the USD.
The new US administration’s policies may lead to an increase in inflation in the US, creating greater uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s trajectory. A depreciation of the USD would necessitate a bull-steepening of the US yield curve; that is, a strong increase in the spread between short-term rates and long-term rates.

While each of these factors could plausibly support the USD, we believe that a resurgence in US inflation and a spike in interest rate volatility are the only scenarios that would lead to substantial appreciation of the USD. However, we find it challenging to believe that such a trend can be sustained and anticipate that the USD could eventually weaken in 2025.

The adverse growth shock from higher tariffs could ultimately weigh on the US economy, making the need for interest rate cuts more apparent than ever, considering the state of public finances and associated interest expenses. We foresee increased confidence in rate cuts as a catalyst for a lower USD.

In conclusion, while several factors could temporarily bolster the US dollar, the long-term outlook suggests potential weakening. The interaction between aggressive trade policies, global economic dynamics, and domestic inflationary pressures will be crucial in shaping the USD's trajectory. As the US navigates these complex challenges, the dynamics and timing of interest rate cuts and their impact on the dollar will be pivotal. Investors and policymakers alike must remain vigilant and adaptable to the evolving economic landscape.

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